Alex Salmond said over the week-end that a second referendum on Scotland leaving the UK was “inevitable”. His reasons include the possibility that Britain could vote to leave the EU, while Scottish voters could vote to stay in. He has a very good point, and one that works the other way too.
What if the EU Referendum results in a majority of the English voting to leave but the overall vote is to stay in secured on a small majority of Scottish votes? That would be totally unacceptable to the English.
Scotland voted to stay in the UK last year in its referendum; but then returned 56 Scottish Nationalist MPs out of a total of 59 MPs for Scotland in the General Election. Suppose that UKIP had secured the 37% of the vote and 10 seat majority that David Cameron did in last May’s election; then, under our democratic system, UKIP would have a clear mandate to take Britain out of the EU.
Some might ague that Scottish voters have given the SNP a mandate to take Scotland out of the Union, notwithstanding the 2014 referendum result. The SNP certainly has the right to continue to campaign for it.
The next significant election in Scotland will be the Scottish Parliament elections in 2016. Currently the SNP have exactly half, 64 of the 128 seats. If they win a majority next year then how can anyone argue that they don’t have a democratic mandate to take Scotland out of the Union? Referenda are only advisory not binding.
If Alex Salmond thinks that England (Wales and Norther Irish) voters do not have the right to take Scotland out of the EU by means of the referendum, then equally England cannot be kept in by Scottish votes.
If England votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes to stay in then that would a good time to have an amicable parting of the ways – England, Wales and Northern Ireland from the EU, and Scotland from the UK.
